Adjacent Possible Navigation

Combine a distant North Star with incremental steps within arm's reach

Alex Komoroske
Thinking like a gardener, slime mold, the adjacent possible

Adjacent Possible Navigation

"The adjacent possible is a set of actions that you can do. They are right in front of you that if you do them, they would work, almost certainly work. In the tech industry in particular, we default assume that the adjacent possible is like this and then flying leap to something. In reality, the adjacent possible is quite small. It's within arm's reach." - Alex Komoroske

What It Is

Adjacent Possible Navigation is a strategic approach that combines long-term vision with incremental, low-risk steps. The concept of "adjacent possible" comes from design thinking—it describes the set of actions immediately available to you that would almost certainly work if you took them.

The key insight is that most people overestimate how far they can jump and underestimate how far they can walk. By taking safe, reasonable steps that each pay for themselves, you can arc toward ambitious outcomes while minimizing risk at each step.

How It Works

Two Components:

1. The North Star (Long-term Vision)

  • Set 3-5 years in the future
  • Very low resolution (not detailed)
  • Must be plausible to anyone with relevant knowledge
  • Should be worth celebrating if achieved
  • Updates slowly over time (slides across the sky, doesn't jerk around)

2. The Adjacent Possible (Immediate Options)

  • Actions within arm's reach
  • Almost certainly will work if taken
  • Low cost if they don't
  • Each action reconfigures the world, creating new options

The Navigation Process:

  1. Define your North Star
  2. Look at your adjacent possible
  3. Find the option with the steepest gradient toward your North Star
  4. Take that step
  5. Reassess: new position = new adjacent possible
  6. Repeat

How to Apply It

  1. Define a compelling North Star

    • "If we got there, everyone would high-five"
    • Not just achievable—worth achieving
    • Plausible to lawyers, engineers, veterans of similar problems

  2. Identify your adjacent possible

    • What can you do right now that would almost certainly work?
    • What's low-cost to try?
    • What's within arm's reach?

  3. Evaluate each option against the North Star

    • Which step pulls you toward your vision?
    • Even if it's not the "best" option in isolation, does it move you in the right direction?

  4. Take the step and reassess

    • After each action, the world reconfigures
    • New options become available
    • Some old options disappear
    • Repeat the process

  5. Resist the urge to jump

    • Don't try to leap to the end state
    • Slice decisions into smaller decisions
    • Each step should "definitely make sense" on its own

When to Use It

Use this approach when:

  • The environment is highly uncertain
  • You can't predict which path will work
  • There are many possible routes to the destination
  • Each step can pay for itself or fail cheaply
  • You want maximum upside with controlled downside

Don't use when:

  • The path is well-known and proven
  • Speed requires commitment to a single plan
  • The steps are expensive and must be done in sequence
  • There's a known "best" approach

Common mistake: Skipping the North Star and just doing incremental work. Without a vision, you'll "random walk into a corner" by following the steepest local gradient rather than the one that leads somewhere meaningful.

Source

  • Guest: Alex Komoroske
  • Episode: "Thinking like a gardener, slime mold, the adjacent possible"
  • Key Discussion: (01:08:20) - Full explanation of adjacent possible navigation
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

Related Frameworks

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