Catalysts, Converts, and Anchors

Three groups emerge during organizational transformation—strategy must differ for each

Brian Balfour
Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it)

Catalysts, Converts, and Anchors

"In every transformation, what we see is essentially three groups of folks. We call them the catalysts, the people leading the charge... You then have what we call your converts... But then, inevitably you have a certain percentage that are anchors." - Brian Balfour

What It Is

Catalysts, Converts, and Anchors is a framework for understanding how people in an organization respond to major transformations—particularly relevant for AI adoption, but applicable to any significant change initiative.

Brian Balfour developed this framework from observing AI adoption across hundreds of companies through Reforge. The key insight: most executives are disconnected from actual adoption reality on the ground. They issue mandates believing change is happening, while in practice only a small fraction of employees are genuinely transforming their work.

The framework provides both a diagnostic tool and a differentiated action plan for each group.

How It Works

The Three Groups

Catalysts (5-15% of organization)

  • Leading the charge without being asked
  • Experimenting on their own time
  • Sharing discoveries with teammates
  • Intrinsically motivated by the technology
  • Early adopters who need no permission

Converts (60-75% of organization)

  • Will make the transformation given the right conditions
  • Need structure, permission, and clear guidance
  • Not negative about change—just need support
  • Respond well to:
    • Executive permission and encouragement
    • Clear budgets and tool access
    • Defined processes and expectations
    • Rewards and recognition systems
    • Career ladder integration

Anchors (15-25% of organization)

  • Dragging their feet actively or passively
  • Creating friction in the background
  • May be silent resistors rather than vocal opponents
  • Often hiding behind process or "concerns"
  • Can poison team culture if unaddressed

The Leadership Disconnect Problem

Brian Balfour shared a specific example: A principal PM at a major tech company created a prototype and shared it with design and engineering. Instead of adoption, it got escalated to VPs and stalled for a month. The CEO—who had publicly proclaimed the company "AI-native"—had no idea this friction existed until the PM mentioned it at a happy hour. The CEO intervened and it was resolved the next day.

This pattern is common:

  • Executives think adoption is happening
  • Reality: only isolated catalysts are adopting
  • The gap remains invisible without ground-level visibility

How to Apply It

For Executive Leaders:

1. Get ground-level visibility

  • Don't rely on leadership reports
  • Talk to individual contributors directly
  • Ask: "How many people on your team are using [tool]?"
  • 90% of the time, the answer is "me and one other person"

2. Create hard constraints (the differentiator) The top ~10% of companies use hard constraints:

  • "No new headcount until you prove AI can't do it"
  • "Teams must be 1/5 the size of industry benchmarks"
  • "No PRD review without three prototypes"
  • "AI tool usage required in performance reviews"

Soft encouragement doesn't work. Hard constraints force adoption.

3. Develop differentiated strategies by group

Group Strategy
Catalysts Celebrate, amplify, give resources, use as internal advocates
Converts Provide structure, permission, training, clear expectations, remove friction
Anchors Set clear deadlines, have direct conversations, plan exits if needed

4. Make the hardest decision on Anchors The companies making real progress are willing to exit people who won't transform:

"This is a fundamental culture change of how we operate as a company. You can't have 20-30% of your company trying to operate in a completely different way." - Brian Balfour

Cultures thrive on density. Persistent anchors dilute the culture you're trying to build.

For Individual Contributors:

1. Self-identify your group

  • Be honest: Are you a catalyst, convert, or anchor?
  • If you're a convert: seek out the structure you need
  • If you're an anchor: understand the risk you're taking

2. Connect with catalysts

  • Find the people in your org who are ahead
  • Learn from their experiments
  • Don't wait for official permission

When to Use It

  • AI transformation planning: Designing rollout strategies
  • Change management: Any major organizational shift
  • Team assessment: Understanding adoption blockers
  • Executive alignment: Bridging the perception-reality gap
  • Performance management: Setting transformation expectations
  • Hiring decisions: Evaluating candidates' transformation readiness

Source

  • Guest: Brian Balfour
  • Episode: "Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it)"
  • Key Discussion: (01:07:15 - 01:13:16) - Full discussion of AI adoption patterns across companies
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

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