SWAG Method (Stupid Wild-Ass Guess)

Start with your best hypothesis, then refine through feedback—don't wait for perfect information

Gibson Biddle
The art of product strategy and prioritization

SWAG Method (Stupid Wild-Ass Guess)

"SWAG is a stupid wild-ass guess, important idea. ... Don't be afraid to start at that level." - Gibson Biddle

What It Is

SWAG (Stupid Wild-Ass Guess) is an approach to strategy and decision-making that emphasizes starting with your best hypothesis—even if it's rough—rather than waiting for perfect information. The idea is to make your thinking concrete so it can be tested, refined, and improved through feedback.

Gibson Biddle used this approach consistently throughout his career, including when joining new companies. Within two weeks of starting a new role, he would develop a draft product strategy—what he calls "a little outrageous"—then refine it through one-on-one conversations before presenting it company-wide six weeks later.

How It Works

The SWAG Process

  1. Develop your initial hypothesis: Based on available information, make your best guess at the answer. This could be a strategy, a priority ranking, an estimate, or a decision.

  2. Acknowledge it's a SWAG: Be transparent that this is your starting point, not your final answer. This sets expectations and invites refinement.

  3. Test with individuals: Share your SWAG with people one-on-one. They've been there longer, they know things you don't, and they'll refine your thinking.

  4. Iterate based on feedback: Each conversation improves your hypothesis. The person who's been there four years will add context you couldn't have known.

  5. Gradually expand the audience: After individual refinement, share with small groups, then larger audiences. By the time you present company-wide, your SWAG has become a well-tested strategy.

Biddle's New Company Playbook

When Biddle joined a new company, his approach was:

Week 1-2: Develop SWAG product strategy

"I would give myself two weeks to develop the product strategy for that company, which is a little outrageous, but I would just do it fast."

Weeks 2-4: Individual testing

"I'd go to one person. 'Hey, this is my best thinking, what do you think?' And of course, they had been there for four years. They were much smarter than I, and they would refine my thinking."

Week 6: Company presentation

"Maybe six weeks later, I could share a product strategy across the company."

The key insight: his initial SWAG was never the final strategy, but it accelerated getting to the right answer.

How to Apply It

  1. Set a forcing function: Give yourself a deadline to produce your first hypothesis. Two weeks is aggressive but effective for most strategic questions.

  2. Write it down: A SWAG in your head isn't testable. Document your hypothesis in a format that can be shared and critiqued.

  3. Pick your first reviewer wisely: Choose someone who knows the domain well and will give honest feedback. Their refinements will be the most valuable.

  4. Frame it correctly: "This is my stupid wild-ass guess. I know I'm probably wrong about half of it. Help me figure out which half."

  5. Track your refinements: Notice what changes between versions. This reveals your blind spots and improves future SWAGs.

Example: Prioritization Ranking

When asked to rank Growth, Engagement, and Monetization priorities at a new company:

Bad approach: "I need to analyze everything before I have an opinion."

SWAG approach:

  1. Within a day, write down your ranking and rationale
  2. Share with CEO: "Here's my SWAG: Growth > Engagement > Monetization because we have PMF and need to capture market. What am I missing?"
  3. Share with CFO: Same question, expect different pushback
  4. Refine based on what you learn
  5. Present your refined view in leadership meeting

The SWAG accelerated the alignment conversation by weeks.

When to Use It

  • Joining a new company or team: Develop hypotheses fast rather than staying in "learning mode" too long
  • Strategic planning: Start with your best guess, then validate
  • Prioritization debates: Have a starting position rather than endless discussion
  • Forecasting: Make your best estimate explicit so it can be tested
  • Unfamiliar domains: A SWAG exposes what you don't know

Benefits of SWAG Thinking

  1. Speed: Gets to answers faster than waiting for complete information
  2. Learning: Your wrong guesses reveal what you need to learn
  3. Engagement: People correct wrong guesses more readily than they volunteer information
  4. Accountability: A written SWAG can be compared to reality later
  5. Humility: Calling it a "stupid wild-ass guess" invites critique

Common Objections

"What if I'm wrong?" You probably are. That's the point. Being wrong early is cheaper than being wrong later.

"Won't people lose confidence in me?" No—if you frame it as a SWAG and show you're learning. People lose confidence when you pretend to have answers you don't have.

"Shouldn't I wait for more data?" Data is important, but waiting for perfect data means never deciding. SWAGs let you act while remaining open to correction.

Source

  • Guest: Gibson Biddle
  • Episode: "The art of product strategy and prioritization"
  • Key Discussion: (06:53, 46:52-47:36) - SWAG definition and application to strategy development
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

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