Series of Small Decisions

Success and failure are both the compound result of many small decisions, not one big moment

Ben Horowitz
$46B of hard truths: Why founders fail and why you need to run toward fear

Series of Small Decisions

"It's one decision leads to another. And so if you can break psychologically, you can take the sunk cost, then that gets you out of a lot of bad paths. And then a little good decision may be difficult, but you have to believe it's going to lead to the next one." - Ben Horowitz

What It Is

The Series of Small Decisions framework challenges the popular narrative that success comes from one brilliant insight or that failure comes from one catastrophic mistake. Instead, both success and failure are the compound result of many sequential decisions—none of which seems catastrophic or brilliant in isolation.

Ben Horowitz learned this from a conversation with a pilot about JFK Jr.'s fatal plane crash. The pilot explained that plane crashes are never about one bad decision—they're about a series of 17 small bad decisions that compound into disaster. Similarly, success stories get simplified into "then they did this smart thing," but reality is far more incremental.

How It Works

The Failure Pattern:

  1. Each individual decision isn't that bad on its own
  2. But each bad decision narrows options and leads to the next
  3. The decisions compound until disaster becomes inevitable
  4. In JFK Jr.'s case: prioritizing arrival time → wrong timing on sunset → flying in darkness → wrong correction when disoriented → crash

The Success Pattern:

  1. Small, difficult-to-make decisions that seem low-impact
  2. Each good decision opens up better options for the next
  3. Good decisions compound into eventual success
  4. The narrative gets rewritten later: "Then they did this brilliant thing"

The Psychological Challenge:

  • Sunk cost fallacy keeps people on bad decision paths
  • Breaking the chain requires accepting past decisions were wrong
  • Each good decision feels small and unrewarding
  • You must trust that small good decisions lead to more opportunities

How to Apply It

  1. Recognize the narrative trap - Stories about others' success will be simplified; your reality will be messy

  2. Focus on the next small decision - Don't look for the one brilliant move; make the next decision slightly better

  3. Break bad chains early - If you're on a bad path, accept the sunk cost and change course immediately

  4. Trust the compound effect - Small good decisions feel unrewarding but lead to better future decisions

  5. Evaluate decision quality, not just outcomes - A good decision can have bad outcomes; a bad decision can get lucky

When to Use It

  • When feeling pressure to find "the answer" or "the breakthrough"
  • When stuck on a bad path due to sunk costs
  • When evaluating your own performance or others'
  • When building confidence after a series of setbacks
  • When the press or others oversimplify your journey

The Prison Insight

Ben Horowitz's friend Shaka Senghor, who spent 19 years in prison including 7 in solitary confinement, exemplified this framework:

"Look, was in prison for 19 years. I was in solitary for seven. I come out, I can't rent an apartment, I can't vote, I can't get a gun, I can't do, no rights. None of that was anything compared to what I did to myself."

The external circumstances matter less than the internal belief systems. Shaka survived solitary by making small, incremental changes to his beliefs and self-perception—decisions that compounded into transformation rather than destruction.

The Implication for Leaders:

  • External challenges (racism, sexism, unfair systems) are real
  • But believing those narratives about yourself is more destructive
  • Small belief changes compound into major life changes
  • "If you believe what people say about you, if you believe what they did to you, then that destroys you. But if you go, 'That's not me,' you can overcome almost anything."

Source

  • Guest: Ben Horowitz
  • Episode: "$46B of hard truths: Why founders fail and why you need to run toward fear"
  • Key Discussion: (00:05:08) - The pilot story about JFK Jr. and the nature of success/failure
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

Related Frameworks

Back to Decision Making