Fish Where the Fish Are

Find markets with opportunity but little competition, not where everyone is fishing

Andrew Wilkinson
I've run 75+ businesses. Here's why you're probably chasing the wrong idea.

Fish Where the Fish Are

"If you're a fisherman and you see a large pond and all around the pond, there's a whole bunch of fishermen and they're all elbowing each other out of the way... You actually want to walk off into the forest and find a small fishing hole with lots of fish and very little competition." - Andrew Wilkinson, citing Charlie Munger

What It Is

This framework, originally from Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett's longtime business partner), helps entrepreneurs choose which markets to enter. The core insight is that competition equals lower margin—the more competitors there are, the lower your prices have to be and the more competitive the business becomes.

Most people gravitate toward exciting, glamorous business ideas that everyone else also wants to pursue. The framework suggests doing the opposite: find markets that are boring or unglamorous enough that few people compete there, but where real opportunity exists.

How It Works

The Crowded Pond:

  • Markets everyone thinks are cool (cafes, restaurants, consumer apps)
  • High competition from smart, well-funded competitors
  • Lower margins due to price competition
  • Requires exceptional execution just to survive

The Hidden Fishing Hole:

  • Boring or unsexy industries (funeral homes, pest control, government form software)
  • Few competitors because nobody wakes up excited about these
  • Higher margins due to limited competition
  • Room to build a defensible business

The Key Question: "How many people wake up every morning wanting to start this exact business?"

If millions of people dream of starting a cafe, that's a warning sign. If almost nobody dreams of starting a pest control company, that's an opportunity signal.

How to Apply It

  1. List your business ideas - Write down ideas you're considering

  2. Score each for "dream factor" - How many people fantasize about starting this exact business? High dream factor = high competition

  3. Look for passion adjacencies - Find your passion, then identify the boring profitable niches within it:

    • Love restaurants? → Consider grease trap cleaning or exhaust vent servicing
    • Love movies? → Consider Letterboxd (film social network) instead of film production
    • Love coffee? → Consider AeroPress (coffee equipment) instead of a cafe

  4. Validate the opportunity - Use AI (ChatGPT/Claude) to research: "Is this a good business? What's hard about it? What would my margins look like?"

  5. Check for moats - Even in boring markets, look for defensibility (brand, network effects, switching costs)

When to Use It

  • When brainstorming new business ideas
  • When evaluating whether to enter a market
  • When choosing between multiple potential businesses
  • When feeling drawn to "sexy" business opportunities

Examples

Sexy but competitive:

  • Productivity/to-do apps (everyone wants to build one)
  • Restaurants and cafes
  • AI companies
  • Consumer social apps

Boring but profitable:

  • Government assistance form software ($30M/year business mentioned)
  • DJ software (Serato)
  • Pressure washing services
  • Industrial services to restaurants

Source

  • Guest: Andrew Wilkinson
  • Episode: "I've run 75+ businesses. Here's why you're probably chasing the wrong idea."
  • Key Discussion: (00:06:26) - Charlie Munger's fishing analogy
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

Related Frameworks

  • Adjacent Possible Navigation - Combine distant goals with incremental steps
  • Baby Weights for Business - Start with simpler businesses first
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