Backcasting (vs Forecasting)

Stand in the future and look back—don't stand in the present and project forward

Christopher Lochhead
How to become a category pirate

Backcasting (vs Forecasting)

"Standing in that future, five years out, looking back to the present, what did we do to make this different future happen? That's category design. That's how you unshackle yourself from the past." — Christopher Lochhead

What It Is

Backcasting is a strategic planning technique where you envision a successful future state, then work backward to identify what actions led there. It contrasts with forecasting, where you stand in the present (an extension of the past) and project forward, asking "What do we need to do to get from here to there?"

The concept comes from legendary VC Mike Maples of Floodgate, who observes that the greatest entrepreneurs are "visitors from the future telling us how it's going to be." They're so clear on the future they see that working backward from it becomes natural.

How It Works

Forecasting (The Trap): Most planning works like a backcountry hike. You know where you are, you know where you want to end up, and you plan waypoints to get from A to B. For a hike, this is smart—you don't want to run out of food on day four.

But for startups and innovation, this approach is "intergalactic disaster." Why? Because your reference point is everything. When forecasting, you're mentally standing in the present (which is an extension of the past) and asking "What obstacles are in the way?" This keeps you shackled to existing constraints and mental models.

Backcasting (The Alternative):

  1. Abandon everything about the current way things are
  2. Envision a future (5 years out) where everything has exceeded expectations
  3. Make that future true in your mind—write out what it looks like
  4. Then ask: "Standing in that future, looking back, what did we do to get here?"

This mental shift changes your reference point from the present to the future. Instead of dragging the past forward, you pull the present toward an envisioned future.

Why It Works:

  • Forecasting asks "What's possible given constraints?" → Incremental thinking
  • Backcasting asks "What must happen for this future to exist?" → Breakthrough thinking

The key insight: if we want to think in unconstrained ways about radically different futures, we have to stop dragging the past forward.

How to Apply It

  1. Reject the premise completely

    • Before backcasting, actively reject everything about how the current market/problem/solution works
    • Ask: "What if we ignored all existing constraints?"

  2. Envision specific success

    • Don't just say "we'll be successful"
    • Detail: What technology are you selling? What are you doing for customers? How big is the company? How many people? What's the culture like?

  3. Make it emotionally real

    • Backcasting only works if the future feels real to you
    • Spend time in that imagined future before looking back

  4. Look backward, not forward

    • From that future, ask: "What decisions did we make?"
    • "What did we do differently from competitors?"
    • "What category did we design?"
    • "What problems did we solve first?"

  5. Identify the critical path

    • What were the 3-5 decisions that made this future inevitable?
    • Work backward from those to today's actions

When to Use It

Backcasting is most valuable when:

  • Planning a new venture or major initiative where you want breakthrough results
  • The current approach is producing incremental results and you need a different mental model
  • You're stuck in "optimization thinking" and can't see past current constraints
  • Developing product or company strategy that needs to be differentiated
  • Envisioning category design where you're creating a future that doesn't exist yet

Backcasting is NOT appropriate when:

  • You need to plan logistics or operations (backcountry hike planning is fine for actual hikes)
  • You're optimizing an existing successful system
  • Risk management requires understanding all obstacles from the present forward
  • You need detailed project timelines with dependencies

Source

  • Guest: Christopher Lochhead
  • Episode: "How to become a category pirate | Christopher Lochhead (Author of Play Bigger, Niche Down, more)"
  • Key Discussions:
    • (01:01:54) - Mike Maples and the backcasting concept
    • (01:02:52) - Backcountry hiking analogy for forecasting
    • (01:04:26) - How backcasting unshackles you from the past
    • (01:06:25) - "Design a bicycle that's not rideable" example
  • YouTube: Watch on YouTube

Related Frameworks

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